With the loss of the UK market, the probable loss of the Indian market and increasingly severe attitudes toward China in Western Europe, Huawei’s multi-year overseas expansion could go into reverse.
China is the world’s largest and – aside from South Korea – most rapidly advancing 5G market. By the end of 2020, industry sources expect China to account for more than 50% of worldwide 5G base station installations and more than 70% of total 5G subscribers. As Asia Times’s Spengler (David P. Goldman) put it recently: “Ericsson appears to have a 10% share in China’s 5G buildout … In terms of sales, that’s roughly equal to 100% of the US 5G equipment market.”
Taking a 10-year view, it would be prudent to consider a world in which China becomes more and more like Japan in using automation to create higher quality jobs and as a solution to the problem of a shrinking labor force.
The US is trying to put a stop to this by cutting off Huawei’s and China’s access to components and equipment produced using American technology. This may have an impact in the short run, but it is already providing an incentive for China to diversify away from dependence on its rival and develop its own capabilities.
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